Is It Possible to Develop an Accurate Weather Forecast – Revealing Main Myths
Weather is something that a person still has not been able to fully understand, study and subordinate to his goals. Cyclones and air masses move on the surface of the planet, regardless of boundaries. Therefore, even the most modern weather service of one country will not be able to make an accurate weather forecast without the help of weather services of other countries.
How to Get the Most Accurate Forecast
The most accurate forecasts are short-term and ultra-short-term, that is, for 12–36 hours. They should come true with a probability of 85–96%, that is, almost always with rare exceptions. Therefore, it is quite fair to express dissatisfaction if such forecasts turn out to be false.
But weekly and 10-day forecasts are a much more vague concept. They, as a rule, correspond to reality by 60–70%. This is the official graduation established by the World Meteorological Organization. In addition, a temperature error of 2 degrees is allowed even for short-term forecasts.
Although we do not notice this, according to global statistics, weather forecasters are progressing: now forecasts for five days are about as accurate as two-day forecasts in the 80s.
And here is some more data for comparison. 30 years ago weather forecasters could create a forecast for only two to three days, and in order to be able to make the most accurate forecasts for more than one day, it takes five to seven years of scientific work “
Forecast for the Year Is Fantastic
Long-term forecasts are made using completely different techniques. At this stage in the development of meteorology, no country in the world makes accurate long-term forecasts.
It is impossible to predict how cyclones and anticyclones will behave. Namely, according to them, weather forecasters make forecasts for a month, two or even more than six months. Therefore, a long-term forecast is always something like a lottery.
But they are done this way: they take the data that are now and sometime before the forecast is made, and compare them with similar situations in the history of meteorological observations.
Well, let’s summarize. An accurate forecast is real if we are talking about a few days, but it is a myth if you try to make predictions in the long run. In any case, use the weather API on your website to always be able to adjust your plans depending on the weather.
Tags: weather, physics, API, changes, forecast, reality, probability, development, science
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