Weather Facts: The Forecast for the Future
Researchers all over the world are puzzled over the question of the causes of temperature increase and forecasts for the future.
A special place was taken by long-term forecasts, for dozens and hundreds of years, as a guide to action for economists, politicians, heads of production – the “captains” of the modern world. Now there are several long-term forecasts for the XXI century.
What Is the Future Age We Are Preparing?
The forecast for such a long time, of course, can only be approximate. Weather parameters are presented with significant tolerances (error intervals, as is customary in mathematical statistics). A number of development scenarios are played out to take into account all the possibilities of the future. The Earth’s climate system is too unstable, even the best models approved by the tests of past years can make miscalculations when turning into the distant future.
The algorithms of the calculations are based on two opposite assumptions:
1) gradual change of weather factors (optimistic variant),
2) their sharp jump, leading to noticeable climate change (pessimistic variant).
What Will the Weather Be like in the Future?
Most likely, in the coming decades, the climate of Europe will gradually lose its continental character, that is, the summer in Eastern and Central Europe will become colder, and the winter, on the contrary, will become milder and more humid. The reason for this is the displacement of the trajectories of cyclones. They will bring cloudy weather and quite heavy rainfall.
In this regard, the risk of flooding will increase, in particular, in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, the amount of water in the oceans is gradually increasing, however, not so much because of the melting of glaciers, but because of its heating. According to the laws of physics, warm water has a larger volume. Accordingly, the water level in the World Ocean rises a little as it warms up, which theoretically could lead to flooding of low-lying areas.
In other areas of the globe, particularly in North America, climate change will be determined by a change in the frequency and intensity of El Niño, a phenomenon that largely affects circulation in the middle latitudes of the Pacific Ocean. This, through complex connections, can have an impact on the tropics of Asia and the African continent.
According to aerospace agency experts, current climate models compiled by climatologists are far from reality and very soon they will become very different from the weather that people will observe. Scientists give such a forecast due to the fact that the number of high-altitude clouds is noticeably decreasing over the tropics. Scientists explain this climate change by global warming. They note that in the future the amount of precipitation will increase, as well as the temperature level. According to scientists, changes in climate can be very serious.
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